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Showing posts from May, 2025

Tracking developments in Western Cape gang dynamics.

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  This is the fifth issue of the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime’s Western Cape Gang Monitor , an output of our South Africa Organized Crime Observatory. This series of bulletins tracks developments in Western Cape gang dynamics each quarter, to provide a concise synthesis of relevant trends to inform policymakers and civil society. The monitor draws on information provided by field researchers working in gang-affected communities of the Western Cape. This includes interviews with current and former gang members, civil society, and members of the criminal justice system.

Cyber scam operations in Southeast Asia.

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  Repurposed hotels, casinos, and private compounds across Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and the Philippines have become centres of global fraud . These compounds are operated by organized criminal networks that exploit hundreds of thousands of people, many of whom are trafficked and forced to perpetrate online scams. Victims include not only those defrauded online but also the scam workers themselves, subjected to threats, violence, sexual exploitation and extreme working conditions. The report details how cyber scams —including ‘pig-butchering’ romance-investment scams, crypto fraud, impersonation and sextortion— now generate tens of billions of dollars annually. These illicit operations thrive due to weak rule of law, widespread corruption, and complicity from powerful figures who operate as ‘role shifters’ —individuals who blur the lines between government, business and crime. Scam compounds often enjoy protection from local elites and security forces, and rely on global money laund...

Rethinking how to deal with organized crime in conflict settings.

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  On 13 and 14 May, representatives from over 130 countries gathered at the UN Peacekeeping Ministerial in Berlin to discuss the future of peacekeeping and to pledge political and financial support for peace operations. While VIPs were driven in limousines through cordoned-off streets in the German capital, UN peacekeepers in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) were on high alert against attacks from rebels fighting for control of mineral-rich regions in North Kivu. Meanwhile, the understaffed and outgunned Kenyan police leading the support mission in Haiti hunkered down in Port-au-Prince in the face of growing threats from criminal gangs, which now control most of the country. The contrast could not be starker. Yet the threat posed by organized crime was barely mentioned at the UN’s high-level political forum. It is also revealing that almost none of the pledges made by the 74 member states were related to organized crime. This lacuna undermines international peace and securi...

How online markets are reshaping global illicit Drug trade?

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  The digital drug revolution: How online markets are reshaping global illicit trade .

Unpacking the challenges of the North American Fentanyl market.

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  The synthetic opioid crisis has reshaped the landscape of organized crime, public health, and security across North America. Drawing on the expert dialogue held in April 2025, this report explores cross-border dynamics, policy gaps, and recommendations to strengthen regional responses. It presents a timely and evidence-based overview of the evolving fentanyl market in Canada, the United States, and Mexico.  Fentanyl is not just a North American issue – it is part of a global shift in synthetic drug production . The report challenges traditional framing, highlighting how fentanyl is produced and consumed domestically within all three countries, often through integrated and illicitly adapted supply chains. These networks mimic legitimate logistics operations, exploiting regulatory and enforcement blind spots. Key insights reveal that unregulated fentanyl rarely appears in pure form. In Toronto, drug-checking services found high levels of contamination , with over 70% of sam...

Advancing multilateral and multi-stakeholder responses to Environmental Crime.

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  Coalescing a more coherent and effective international response was a daunting, but necessary common objective of the government of France and the GI-TOC, who invited a diverse set of participants in Paris for the third security and development dialogue on environmental crime in Paris in April 2025 , with the financial support of the European Union through the ECO-SOLVE project. The event is part of a series aimed at building political will and momentum for a more ambitious global response to environmental crime through the multilateral system . The dialogue series aims to determine shared priorities for action and to prepare for collective engagement ahead of important multilateral processes taking place in 2025 and 2026, with an agenda focused on ways of prioritizing environmental crimes for urgent and collective action at global, regional and national levels to protect both people and planet . As such, it enables participants to:discuss strategies to draw attention to the env...

Deporting to Danger.

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  This publication explores the multifaceted risks associated with migrants transfers . Authored by Dr. Matt Herbert, the report presents a detailed analysis of how migrant expulsions could exacerbate instability in Libya and fuel smuggling and extortion networks . Libya remains an extremely fragile state, with two rival governments and widespread militia activity. Since the 2011 revolution, illicit markets have also flourished. Among the most developed and dangerous is that for human smuggling and trafficking, marked by the exploitation of migrants through extortion, forced labour, and predation. Both official and unofficial detention facilities are sites of chronic human rights violations , including torture, sexual violence, and ransom-driven extortion. Migrants deported from the US risk becoming entangled in this. Beyond humanitarian risks, the political implications of deportations would be severe. They would inflame tensions in the Tripolitania region, weakening the alr...

Civil society Organization’s role in preventing and combating organized crime.

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  This policy brief draws on the five-year experience of the Resilience Fund from 2019 to 2024 to make a compelling case for recognizing and empowering civil society as a critical front-line actor in the fight against organized crime. At a time when transnational organized crime is growing in complexity and reach, and when civic space is shrinking globally, this brief reflects on the tangible impact of community-based responses and outlines a forward-looking agenda for policy, funding and institutional reform. This brief will be presented at the 34th session of the Commission on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice in Vienna , which provides a unique and vital platform to reaffirm the importance of international cooperation against organized crime. Published one year ahead of the 15th UN Congress on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice in Abu Dhabi (April 2026), it aligns with the Congress theme: ‘ Accelerating crime prevention, criminal justice and the rule of law: protecting p...

The future of organized crime beyond the Russian/NATO war.

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  Analyis from the European Asian States Observatories on the Future of TOC beyong the Russian/NATO War . As the conflict in Ukraine approaches a possible turning point, ‘ Crime and peace: The future of organized crime beyond the Russo-Ukrainian war ’ explores the post-conflict risks and transformations that may shape the criminal underworld in Ukraine, Russia and beyond. Drawing on three years of research by GI-TOC’s Eurasia Observatory, the report offers a thematic risk assessment, addressing five key areas: people, control, expertise, hardware, and money. Each theme reflects how new opportunities for organized crime will be generated in the event of a ceasefire or peace agreement. Key findings show that: Veterans, IDPs, refugees and those in economic hardship are vulnerable to recruitment into illicit economies, from drug and sex trafficking to ICT-enabled fraud and recruitment into organized crime. The end of martial law in Ukraine may reduce state control and allow criminal ...

A wasted opportunity? Haiti on the brink as Kenya’s aid mission remains paralyzed.

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  Analysis from Haiti Observatories on '' Haiti on the brink as Kenya’s aid mission remains paralyzed" .

Disrupting the destabilising impacts of organized crime in West Africa.

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Recognizing the importance of illicit economies within West Africa’s conflict ecosystem , the GI-TOC launched the illicit hub mapping project in 2022. The initial phase identified 280 hubs of illicit economies across 18 focus countries. A quantitative metric, the Illicit Economies and Instability Monitor (‘ Monitor ’), was then applied to analyze the extent to which the illicit economies in each hub fuelled instability. This assessment was based on 30 indicators, drawing on expert analysis and existing data. Three years on, the second iteration of the illicit hub mapping project is in the final stages of development. Building on important additions to the Monitor and an extensive existing evidence base, the 2025 edition will capture the most recent trends relating to illicit economies and instability across West Africa . The updated illicit hub mapping allows for analysis of illicit economy engagement by actor type, as well as a spatial analysis of illicit hubs . It also considers t...

Observatory of Illicit Economies in West Africa.

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  - Summary highlights - Conflict, coups and containers: why the Sahel cocaine routes were disrupted. Northbound trans-Sahelian trafficking routes underpin a substantial minority of cocaine exports from West Africa to Europe. While available evidence indicates that these routes experienced a resurgence between 2019 and 2023, recent research reveals that this trend is likely to have been disrupted by political upheaval and armed conflicts since mid-2023. Trafficking volumes through northern Niger are reported to have fallen sharply, though trafficking routes through northern Mali remain largely resilient and have restructured operations. Indications of significant cocaine trafficking in southern Mali should largely not be read as north-bound flows. Instead, they reflect West Africa’s growing role as a recontainerization hub, with routes between coastal points of import and export shaped by the export potential of subregional maritime ports.  Read more The shadow constellat...

Observatory of illict economies in South Eastern Europe.

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  - Summary highlights - Balkan criminals involved in large-scale smuggling through Hamburg. Criminal groups from the Western Balkans have emerged as key players in cocaine trafficking through the Port of Hamburg — Europe’s third-largest container hub. Both Albanian-speaking networks and Slavic-speaking groups now coordinate sophisticated smuggling operations from South America, with well-developed systems for extracting cocaine from containers and distributing it across Europe. Despite record seizures, these criminal networks demonstrate remarkable resilience and adaptability. Although German authorities have made strides in enhancing port security, significant gaps remain in addressing corruption and in developing effective coordination with Balkan law enforcement agencies.  Read more The internationalization of migrant smuggling through the Balkans. The Western Balkan route has become a critical migration corridor into the European Union, with criminal networks developing s...

Insights on the lives of Workers in weapons production.

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  Initially targeting African countries, Alabuga Start expanded to recruit women aged 18–22 from Latin America, South Asia, and former Soviet countries. Reports found that participants were not informed they would be working in weapons production before arriving at the site. Some believed they were joining a work-study programme. Testimonies described long hours, constant surveillance, and health issues caused by exposure to caustic chemicals. According to whistle-blowers at Alabuga Polytech, workers faced punitive management and harsh conditions. Analysis from the Eastern European States Observatories.

Haiti: How US terrorist designations could deepen criminal rule and humanitarian tragedy.

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  Analysis from Haiti observatories on How US terrorist designations could deepen criminal rule and humanitarian tragedy

Enhance the effectiveness of policy responses.

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  The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) was active at the CCPCJ throughout and will participate in the following events during the week, to Highlight the latest research and activities related to enhancing understanding of issues on the agenda at this year’s CCPCJ , including crime prevention and community resilience, crimes that affect the environment, organized fraud operations, youth criminality , human trafficking and other challenges. They contributed with recommendations to enhance the effectiveness of policy responses, for better impacts on communities and societies around the world. Side event: Raising awareness of the global impact of fraud . Download. Side event: Prevention of lethal violence in organized crime - focused deterrence and other preventive strategies . Download . Side event: Responding to youth criminality linked to transnational organized crime in the Nordic and Baltic regions . Download . Breakfast event: Building resilienc...

How to strengthen Peacekeeper operations?

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  This issue paper is a contribution to the Alliance’s collective input for the UN Peacekeeping Ministerial, which includes collaborative policy papers and short issue papers offering concrete policy recommendations on how to strengthen UN peace operations. GI-TOC is participating at the ministerial hosting a side-event on Transnational Organized Crime and Peace Operations with the UN Association of Germany, and will take part in the Alliance’s April online workshop and May 12 symposium ahead of the ministerial. Learn more about the United Nations Peacekeeping Ministerial 2025 : GI-TOC joins the Global Alliance for Peace Operations

Peace operations and organized crime in a changing world.

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  The challenge is felt across conflict settings, for example in Colombia, Afghanistan, the DRC, Libya, Mali, Myanmar and Haiti. The impacts of organized crime in conflict are economic, political and social, critically impacting efforts to decrease violence, establish good governance and advance peace. Addressing transnational organized crime, though recognized as a key threat, has never had an easy policy fix. And in the current geopolitical climate, the stakes are higher, yet the challenges are greater. This side-event (also available online), hosted by the United Nations Association of Germany and the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC), will explore evolving developments of the TOC-conflict nexus , discuss UN responses in the context of peace operations, and generate ideas for more effective peace interventions. The dictionary defines a spoiler as information that can ruin "a viewer's sense of surprise or suspense." Security and Rights...