Observatory of Illicit Economies in West Africa.

 

- Summary highlights -


Conflict, coups and containers: why the Sahel cocaine routes were disrupted.

Northbound trans-Sahelian trafficking routes underpin a substantial minority of cocaine exports from West Africa to Europe. While available evidence indicates that these routes experienced a resurgence between 2019 and 2023, recent research reveals that this trend is likely to have been disrupted by political upheaval and armed conflicts since mid-2023. Trafficking volumes through northern Niger are reported to have fallen sharply, though trafficking routes through northern Mali remain largely resilient and have restructured operations. Indications of significant cocaine trafficking in southern Mali should largely not be read as north-bound flows. Instead, they reflect West Africa’s growing role as a recontainerization hub, with routes between coastal points of import and export shaped by the export potential of subregional maritime ports. Read more


The shadow constellation: how Starlink devices are shaping conflict and crime in the Sahel.

Starlink satellite internet technology is a growing influence in conflict dynamics in the Sahel. Violent extremist groups, including Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), are exploiting the portable, high-speed connectivity to enhance their operations, coordinate in real-time and evade detection in areas with poor telecommunications infrastructure. Although Niger and Chad legalized Starlink in March 2025 to improve regulation, smuggling networks are likely to continue to traffic devices from Nigeria and Libya along established corridors, charging inflated prices for both equipment and subscriptions, and permitting armed groups and criminal networks to access this technology. While the technology brings connectivity benefits to remote regions, this capacity to empower criminal networks complicates security responses in the conflict-ridden Sahel. Read more


Canary Islands migrant smugglers ramp up to meet surging demand.

More migrants to the European Union arrive in the Canary Islands from West and North Africa than by any other route, and many of them have been displaced from northbound trans-Sahelian alternatives. Regional conflict dynamics are contributing to its surging popularity. Smuggling networks in Senegal and Mauritania have responded by becoming more professional and efficient, and they cater to an increasingly eclectic range of clients. Conflict dynamics and economic stresses suggest that movement on the route — the world’s deadliest for migrants — looks set to rise further. Read more

About this issue: West Africa Risk Bulletin #12