Deporting to Danger.

 

This publication explores the multifaceted risks associated with migrants transfers. Authored by Dr. Matt Herbert, the report presents a detailed analysis of how migrant expulsions could exacerbate instability in Libya and fuel smuggling and extortion networks. Libya remains an extremely fragile state, with two rival governments and widespread militia activity. Since the 2011 revolution, illicit markets have also flourished. Among the most developed and dangerous is that for human smuggling and trafficking, marked by the exploitation of migrants through extortion, forced labour, and predation. Both official and unofficial detention facilities are sites of chronic human rights violations, including torture, sexual violence, and ransom-driven extortion. Migrants deported from the US risk becoming entangled in this. Beyond humanitarian risks, the political implications of deportations would be severe. They would inflame tensions in the Tripolitania region, weakening the already precarious Government of National Unity. Recent militia clashes and political decrees have already destabilized the capital, and public backlash against migrant presence is intensifying. In the east, deportations could embolden Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar and the Libyan Arab Armed Forces he leads. The brief underscores that deportations would risk reinforcing cycles of violence and impunity, placing vulnerable individuals in harm’s way and undermining regional stability. Rather than viewing deportations through short-term political calculus, the US should assess the long-term risks to its broader interests in Libya and the region that such a policy would entail.

Analysis from the North African States Observatories on How potential US migrant expulsions to Libya could feed into the country’s criminal economy and instability.