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Showing posts with the label Arms Smuggling

Monitoring long-term conflict and Arms trafficking trends.

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  Analysis from the Asia - Asia/Pacific Observatories on Beyond legacy weapons: South East Asia’s illicit arms trade is diversifying. Arms trafficking in South East Asia has diversified considerably in recent years, moving beyond the legacy weapons from past conflicts that have long saturated the region, and increasingly intersecting with other illicit economies. These changes contributed to an uptick in the region’s arms trafficking score between 2021 and 2023 (4.82 to 5.23 out of 10), according to the Global Organized Crime Index, with the largest increases seen in Laos , Myanmar and Thailand . This mirrors broader criminality trends observed in the region under the Index, with the overall score rising by a similar margin, from 5.44 to 5.82. Although arms trafficking remains less severe than other illicit economies, such as human trafficking , synthetic drug production and environmental crimes , and has received less attention than the international scam operations that hav...

Arms trafficking in Türkiye, Bulgaria and Greece.

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  This  report  investigates how arms trafficking functions within and across these countries, each with its own ecosystem shaped by history, geography, conflict and criminal trends . As the war in Ukraine continues, concerns are mounting over potential arms spillovers. Yet this report underscores that illegal weapons flows in the region extend far beyond Ukraine, with roots in local cultures, politics and longstanding trafficking networks.  Türkiye emerges as a major source and transit hub for illicit weapons . With an estimated 36 million unlicensed firearms—90% of total civilian arms in the country—the scale is staggering. The report highlights how blank-firing pistols produced legally in Türkiye are trafficked via Bulgaria into the EU, where they are converted into lethal weapons. Transnational networks, terrorist groups and domestic criminals all contribute to Türkiye’s complex firearms market. Greece is primarily a transit country but also has strong domesti...

The future of organized crime beyond the Russian/NATO war.

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  Analyis from the European Asian States Observatories on the Future of TOC beyong the Russian/NATO War . As the conflict in Ukraine approaches a possible turning point, ‘ Crime and peace: The future of organized crime beyond the Russo-Ukrainian war ’ explores the post-conflict risks and transformations that may shape the criminal underworld in Ukraine, Russia and beyond. Drawing on three years of research by GI-TOC’s Eurasia Observatory, the report offers a thematic risk assessment, addressing five key areas: people, control, expertise, hardware, and money. Each theme reflects how new opportunities for organized crime will be generated in the event of a ceasefire or peace agreement. Key findings show that: Veterans, IDPs, refugees and those in economic hardship are vulnerable to recruitment into illicit economies, from drug and sex trafficking to ICT-enabled fraud and recruitment into organized crime. The end of martial law in Ukraine may reduce state control and allow criminal ...

How to strengthen Peacekeeper operations?

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  This issue paper is a contribution to the Alliance’s collective input for the UN Peacekeeping Ministerial, which includes collaborative policy papers and short issue papers offering concrete policy recommendations on how to strengthen UN peace operations. GI-TOC is participating at the ministerial hosting a side-event on Transnational Organized Crime and Peace Operations with the UN Association of Germany, and will take part in the Alliance’s April online workshop and May 12 symposium ahead of the ministerial. Learn more about the United Nations Peacekeeping Ministerial 2025 : GI-TOC joins the Global Alliance for Peace Operations

‘free city’ model.

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  Odesa’s relative stability, growing economy, and reopened ports have created an oasis for criminal economies, guided by one rule: anyone can do business, as long as they do not interfere with others. This ‘free city’ model has allowed Odesa to emerge as a hub for scam call centres , synthetic drug production and tax evasion surrounding lucrative grain exports. The study delves into a troubling overlap between legitimate business and criminal enterprise . For instance, the booming grain trade – critical for Ukraine’s economy – is plagued by fraud, shell companies and collusion with sanctioned actors. At the heart of this is the use of cash to conduct large transactions , depriving the Ukrainian state of an estimated $3 billion between May 2022 and May 2024.This report offers Insights into how illicit economies evolve during conflict and why stronger responses are needed now to prevent long-term damage . Analysis from Eastern Asian States Observatories on Odessa: An Oasis for ...

Illict trade between Ukraine's Transcarpathia and the EU.

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  Eastern asian States observatories on the Illicit Trade Between Ukraine's Tanscarpathia and the European Union .

Violence and Resilience in Haiti: Risk Bulletin #3.

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  Analysis from Haiti Observatories on Violence and Resilience .

Collateral damage: Assessing subsrance use in Ukraine's military.

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  Analysis from the East-Asian States Observatories on Assessing substance use in Ukraine's military forces and Governments.

Future trends in arms trafficking from Ukraine conflict.

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  Analysis From Eastern Asian States Observatories and European Observatories.

Afghanistan's unchecked arsenal under Taliban rule.

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  Central South Asia observatories

What does the future of the Ukraine conflict mean for Europe's Illicit arms market?

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Focus on Arms Smuggling.

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The illegal manufacturing and trafficking of firearms is a growing threat that fuels organized crime, armed conflict, and terrorism. Criminal groups move weapons across borders using the same routes as drugs and human trafficking, often linking arms smuggling to other illicit markets. New challenges such as 3D-printed guns and untraceable “ghost weapons” make detection more difficult , while some networks also serve the interests of hostile state actors aiming to destabilize regions.  Arms smuggling , or weapons trafficking, is the illicit trade and smuggling of contraband small arms , explosives, and ammunition across national or international borders. It is a global problem that fuels violence, organized crime, terrorism, and human rights violations, posing a serious threat to public safety, national security, and international relations. Key Aspects of Arms Smuggling Arms trafficking involves the unauthorized import, export, sale, delivery, or transfer of weapons withou...