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Showing posts from April, 2025

‘free city’ model.

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  Odesa’s relative stability, growing economy, and reopened ports have created an oasis for criminal economies, guided by one rule: anyone can do business, as long as they do not interfere with others. This ‘free city’ model has allowed Odesa to emerge as a hub for scam call centres , synthetic drug production and tax evasion surrounding lucrative grain exports. The study delves into a troubling overlap between legitimate business and criminal enterprise . For instance, the booming grain trade – critical for Ukraine’s economy – is plagued by fraud, shell companies and collusion with sanctioned actors. At the heart of this is the use of cash to conduct large transactions , depriving the Ukrainian state of an estimated $3 billion between May 2022 and May 2024.This report offers Insights into how illicit economies evolve during conflict and why stronger responses are needed now to prevent long-term damage . Analysis from Eastern Asian States Observatories on Odessa: An Oasis for ...

Focus on the world’s largest producers of illicit cannabis.

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  For decades, Morocco has been one of the world’s largest producers of illicit cannabis. Cultivation is deeply woven into the social and economic fabric of the northern mountainous region of the Rif. For communities in remote and underserved areas, the crop has long provided a survival economy in the absence of viable alternatives. Building on this historical association, Morocco has undertaken policy reforms to transform the informal economy into a regulated, state-supervised industry. Although these efforts are an important step towards formalization , with a view to integrating Moroccan cannabis into global supply chains, implementation challenges highlight the complexities of regulating an entrenched informal economy.By the end of 2024, ANRAC had issued more than 3 300 authorizations for cannabis-related activities, including processing, seed import, transport and other logistical aspects of the supply chain. The agency also certified 7.6 million imported seeds and authori...

Disrupting al-Shabaab’s hold on Mogadishu’s economy.

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  The militant Islamist group al-Shabaab has long remained influential in Mogadishu through its sophisticated extortion system, which demands zakat payments —forced charitable tax— and levies on trade and real estate transactions. The group reportedly generates over US$100 million annually, with an estimated one-third of its revenue derived from Mogadishu alone. The report highlights urgent gaps in Anti-money laundering (AML) and countering the financing of terrorism (CFT) enforcement . While Somalia introduced its first domestic sanctions list in 2024, poor compliance and lack of institutional capacity continue to hinder impact. Recommendations include enhanced AML/CFT training for non-financial sectors, incentives for compliance, biometric ID enrolment, and smarter sanctions enforcement through international collaboration.

Designating criminal groups as foreign terrorist organizations.

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  Violent activity by criminal groups is not classified as terrorism in the Global Terrorism Index . Yet the massacre of 207 people by criminal gangs in Haiti in December 2024 would rank as the second deadliest terrorist attack in 2024. To put things in perspective, 7 555 people were killed in terrorist attacks worldwide in 2024; in Haiti alone, there were 7 302 homicides last year. The number of homicides in Mexico in 2024 was 25 469, many of them directly attributable to organized crime. In stark terms, organized crime kills far more people than terrorism.

The thalassopolitics of international drug trafficking.

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  What if drug traffickers had already taken control of Europe’s major seaports? This alarming prospect is not just the stuff of crime fiction. The 116 tonnes of cocaine seized in 2023 at the Belgian port of Antwerp serve as a stark reminder of the growing scale of the illicit drug trade. The expansion of cultivation areas, improvements in yields and processing techniques for coca leaves and poppy bulbs, and the rise in global demand illustrate the increasing scale of drug organizations. Chartered fleets of sailboats and commercial vessels, narcosubmarines , container contamination, cyberattacks on port infrastructure , dropoffs from cargo giants… the determination of this criminal thalassocracy knows no bounds.

Focus on cyber scams.

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  A focus on online fraud and how generative AI can serve criminal interests. Now is the time for India and the United States, both exploited by online scammers, to show global leadership in jointly tackling this growing threat. A global rise in cyber scams India has long been at the centre of discussions about scams and online fraud . The country emerged as a hub for the call centre industry in the 1990s, when prominent Western companies – attracted by the potential savings and the fact that English is widely spoken in the country – offshored this component of their business there. More recently, companies have begun to outsource to other countries, and some of those who had previously worked in Indian centres have reportedly stolen databases from their previous employers to set up their own call centres, offering legitimate, but in some cases fraudulent support. Today, online scammers in India often hide behind legitimate businesses . The companies reportedly defraud victims – ...

Illict trade between Ukraine's Transcarpathia and the EU.

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  Eastern asian States observatories on the Illicit Trade Between Ukraine's Tanscarpathia and the European Union .

Why Eastern Europe leads global cybercrime?

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  Cybercriminality , or cybercrime, is the use of computers and networks to commit illegal acts, such as fraud, theft, and harassment. These acts can range from exploiting vulnerabilities in computer systems to hacking, phishing, and distributing malware, and can cause significant financial and reputational damage. Cybercrimes can be classified as cyber-dependent, where the crime is only possible with technology, or cyber-enabled, where technology is used to facilitate a traditional crime. Cybercrime is a growing global threat, causing trillions of dollars in economic damage annually. This report explores how Eastern Europe have become a significant hub for cybercriminal activity , fueled by historical legacies, economic disparities, and state connections. Analysis from East Asian States Observatories and European Observatories on Cybercriminality.

The Summer School on Illicit Trade 2025.

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  Exploring the complex world of illicit trade and the future of geopolitics and global supply chains . Organized by the University of Groningen in collaboration with the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC), and hosted by CSDS at the VUB, the Summer School on Illicit Trade offers a unique opportunity to deepen your understanding of this pressing global issue and explore strategies for combating it. Immerse yourself into the multifaceted realm of illicit trade through our comprehensive one-week course set to take place at the prestigious VUB from 7-11 July 2025.

Violence and Resilience in Haiti: Risk Bulletin #3.

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  Analysis from Haiti Observatories on Violence and Resilience .

Looking into the future: Transnational organized crime and UN Peace Operations.

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  Analysis on Security and Rights