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Shifts in the global criminal landscape.

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  The global criminal landscape is best understood as a dynamic and intricate web made up of a dense network of illicit activities. It reacts to countermeasures and shifting socio-economic and political conditions, which continually shape it. Organized crime is therefore fluid – it adapts to changing contexts, capitalizes on emerging vulnerabilities and exploits the intersections of incoherent governance, economic pressures and technological change. While certain illicit markets, actors and response patterns show remarkable persistence over time, what truly defines the trajectory of organized crime are moments of inflection: the points at which entrenched patterns begin to shift and the criminal ecosystem reorganizes itself. Historically, such shifts have often unfolded gradually, revealing themselves over long periods. After World War II, the expansion of global trade networks, the geopolitical realignments that followed the end of the Cold War, and the cocaine boom of the 1980s a...
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Where do we go from here?

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  The world is at a moment of inflection and the Index findings support this notion, as geopolitical, economic and technological disruptions are redrawing the contours of the global criminal economy. Organized crime is not only expanding but fundamentally reorganizing, embedding itself more deeply in licit systems with a speed and sophistication that continue to outpace state responses. Traditional trafficking routes are being redrawn, new commodities are displacing old ones, criminal actors that operate across borders or within the legal economy are consolidating, and new and less visible illicit markets are spreading. These dynamics exploit governance gaps and technological shifts, and are expected to shape developments in the years ahead. Earlier patterns have not disappeared, however; they persist, even as the trajectory increasingly points in new directions. Among the major shifts transforming the criminal ecosystem, the Index highlights several critical dynamics: the growing ...
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Location: Palais des Nations, Av. de la Paix 8-14, 1211 Genève, Switzerland
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Crossroads of crime and resilience.

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  2.1 Global drug trafficking shifts to a duopoly Drug markets have been undergoing profound transformations, driven by major shifts in the global criminal economy. Disruptions in Afghan heroin production, surging cocaine supplies, the steady rise in the market for synthetic opioids, and the partial legalization of cannabis in some countries are reshaping patterns of production, trafficking and consumption worldwide.1 As the dynamics of the drug markets change, the consequences for public health, organized criminal activity and drug-related violence are becoming increasingly severe. © Rashide Frias/AFP via Getty Images The result is a steadily expanding global drug trade, marked by record-high drug use and mounting social and security costs in nearly every region. The 2025 World Drug Report estimates that 316 million people used drugs in 2023 – a 28% increase over the past decade, outpacing global population growth.2 Beneath this overarching trend, distinct dynamics are emerging th...
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Location: Palais des Nations, Av. de la Paix 8-14, 1211 Genève, Switzerland
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Trajectories.

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Criminality and resilience are part of an interlinked web of numerous and overlapping dynamics that are continually changing over time. For policymakers, understanding how these dynamics translate into vulnerabilities, and developing adequate responses is an immense challenge, particularly as transformations in organized crime dynamics have become marked in recent years. In this context, the value of the Index becomes clear. The Index not only measures the scale of criminal activity, but also identifies the strengths and weaknesses of institutional anti-organized crime systems. The vulnerability matrix illustrates the interaction between criminality and resilience by positioning each of the 193 assessed countries within one of four quadrants (see Figure 22). This approach enables stakeholders to monitor shifts in vulnerability specific to their own context and to respond to emerging risks. Figure 22 - Vulnerability classification (2025) Made with Flourish • Create a chart   ...
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Location: Palais des Nations, Av. de la Paix 8-14, 1211 Genève, Switzerland
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